Stock market thread 7/13, go:

📉 Bill Stock market thread 7/13, go:

Mhmm long tail risk: buy cheap OTM puts on HYG 4-12 months out,roll every 2 months, using kevinpmooney monte carlo blogger post as a basic framework, but using generalized extreme value distribution to calc the probabilities of payouts 100x premium fitted 2 shape of the returns from par of the underlying;did it all 2019 and paid out in feb/march, stared to load up again in june.i expect fireworks into the 20 sept 20 cdx rolls

4y, 23w 2 replies

📉 Bill Oh wow HYG/JNK was THE option play in feb. so you think the Fed won't stop in if this repeats in high yield? I know there's a lot of insolvent shitcos being propped up right now tho

4y, 23w 1 reply

🌊 Zero Two $VTSAX only bby

4y, 23w reply

⚪ Ghostis Nearly straight index investor, except for a tiny bit of TQQQ for fun.

4y, 23w 1 reply

📉 Bill My view is index investing is going to disconnect here sometime. Did you know 5 stocks make up now 22% of $SPY?

4y, 23w reply

🗜️ Mx My weekly strategy is SPY butterflies in either direction, hedged with an equal VXX butterfly. If I'm right about the market direction, SPY makes money. If am wrong, VXX makes money. The key is to position your P/L ratio as high as possible, so you make more from the winning fly.

4y, 23w 5 replies

📉 Bill Very interesting, that sounds like a good strat

4y, 23w 4 replies

😏 Yt L. For my own investment strategy I'm selling puts on Wells Fargo at 24.5 for 7/17. I don't think it'll drop that low, and if it does I'd be fine owning it for a while, I think it's mostly stable with decent dividends.

4y, 23w 6 replies

📉 Bill Doesn't seem like much premium there? Were you planning on buying anyway?

4y, 23w 1 reply

🗜️ Mx I just sold mine with a small loss. I don't like to hold naked puts through earnings. EA is tomorrow before market open.

4y, 23w 1 reply

Grendel Wow, this place is pretty new and I'm already seeing WSB starting to form here.

4y, 23w 1 reply